- Looking at the trends behind the numbers that can help uncover fantasy value.
Four weeks of NFL games and data provide significant information we need to use for the fantasy season. The odds are that if a player contributed in Week 4, they are part of the plan moving forward unless their role was due to injury and even then players can emerge. In the first quarter of the season, many fantasy players chase early trends in free agency and FAAB.
This week's article focuses on 20 not-so-obvious standouts. First I’ll list their raw data from Week 4, then I’ll draw my conclusions at the bottom. Some of the players mentioned are available on your waiver wire, and some are fair-priced trade targets. Take the time to perform your own sniff test on these recommendations.
Eagles RB Jordan Howard: 53.2 snap percentage, 12.1 target percentage, 54.5 touch percentage.
Titans WR AJ Brown: 43.8 snap percentage, 10.7 target percentage, 10.7 touch percentage.
Browns TE Ricky Seals-Jones: 30.4 snap percentage, 14.3 target percentage, 14.3 touch percentage.
Steelers RB Jaylen Samuels: 45.8 snap percentage, 29.6 target percentage, 77.8 touch percentage.
Browns RB Dontrell Hillard: 36.2 snap percentage, 12 target percentage, 32 touch percentage.
Ravens WR Miles Boykin: 30.4 snap percentage, 14.3 target percentage, 14.3 touch percentage.
Chiefs RB Darrel Williams: 51.4 snap percentage, 11.1 target percentage, 30.6 touch percentage.
Bucs RB Ronald Jones: 48.6 snap percentage, 2.8 target percentage, 55.6 touch percentage.
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton: 94.5 snap percentage, 17.3 target percentage, 11.5 touch percentage.
Browns WR Jarvis Landry: 75.4 snap percentage, 19.2 target percentage, 15.4 touch percentage.
Steelers WR Diontae Johnson: 62.7 snap percentage, 16.2 target percentage, 16.2 touch percentage.
Ravens TE Marc Andrews: 42.0 snap percentage, 27.6 target percentage, 13.8 touch percentage.
Falcons RB Ito Smith: 37.5 snap percentage, 13.3 target percentage, 13.3 touch percentage.
Dolphins WR DeVante Parker: 82.7 snap percentage, 9.3 target percentage, 9.3 touch percentage.
Bears RB Tarik Cohen: 38.9 snap percentage, 17.9 target percentage, 25 touch percentage.
Titans WR Corey Davis: 87.5 snap percentage, 10.7 target percentage, 8.9 touch percentage.
Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay: 45.5 snap percentage, 4 target percentage, 40 touch percentage.
Packers TE Jimmy Graham: 70 snap percentage, 15.8 target percentage, 10.5 touch percentage.
Dolphins RB Kenyan Drake: 53.8 snap percentage, 17.9 target percentage, 42.9 touch percentage.
Seahawks TE Will Dissly: 79.4 snap percentage, 16 target percentage, 14 touch percentage.
Maybe the most glaring Week 4 stat standout is Steelers RB Jaylen Samuels’s 77.8% touch rate. Samuels did everything against the Bengals—run, catch and even throw. This usage shows the potential for a new breed of fantasy RB that continually touches the rock. The closest non-QB to compete with this kind of outrageous touch percentage were Week 4 RBs that were in the 50-59% range, no non-QB was in the 60% range to shed light on this dramatic data coming from Samuels.
Some of the Week 4 data standouts have already been cut by impatient fantasy owners, which can create value for you. Consider these crafty roster additions to hedge current fantasy starters.
Courtland Sutton's 94.5 snap percentage was only beaten by Robert Woods (98%), Mike Thomas (97.2%), Chris Godwin (94.6%) and fantasy WRs that ranked in the top 25 in Week 4.
Chiefs RB Darrel Williams’s 30.6% touch rate is a figure that can't be ignored. Owning multiple shares of KC RBs and WRs is definitely in style in 2019. It's a long season and having a piece of the offense is worth the roster spots.
After four weeks of awful, awful football, two Miami Dolphins (DaVante Parker and Kenyan Drake) are listed above, and someone's going to have to make some noise in the Miami offense in garbage time.
Ronald Jones is gaining momentum. Jones is a Week 4 data standout who also passes the eye test. From watching Bucs games, Jones (who has a 55.6 touch percentage) looks like the RB1 in my opinion.
Mariota clearly has a thing for A.J. Brown (3-94-2 TDs), and Corey Davis (6-91-1 TD) flashed and showed signs of life as well.