- There are lots of intriguing games on the Week 4 slate, and The MMQB staff has identified its top picks to cash for this week.
After going 4-0 with our best bets this past weekend, we're back for Week 4. For this week's batch, we are using current odds from William Hill.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3)
As you might have heard, the vaunted Broncos D has zero sacks and zero takeaways this season. The unit is underachieving, and it's past time that we accept the fact that it is no longer dominant. But to have zero splash plays through three weeks is a combination of a massive fluke and weird scheduling (Denver's lone home game—which it would've won if not for an absurd roughing the passer call late—was against the Bears' Trubisky-led "keep every throw behind the line of scrimmage and pray for a penalty" offense, presenting few opportunities for sacks and takeaways). That no-sack, no-takeaway streak is likely to be broken against Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars, an offense willing to take some chances as well as one that will have to adjust to the thin air in Denver (not to mention a team that continues to deal with the Jalen Ramsey trade demand drama). Don't be afraid of the fact that the 0-3 Broncos are giving points. — Gary Gramling
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
The Cowboys don’t yet have a signature win, because they’ve been busy beating up on bad teams. But I still think it’s clear they’re as good as anyone in the NFC right now. I’ll admit that New Orleans surprised me last week with how well it played against Seattle, but this line still looks off to me. I see that it’s offered at -3 elsewhere right now, and I’ll happily make Dallas my pick at -2.5. I’m surprised it’s not at least 3.5.
Yes, the Saints won comfortably last week (before late scores made the final score look less lopsided), but they are going to lose games with Teddy Bridgewater under center, and we might as well start here. You can’t expect him to put up 33 every week, and that 33 in Seattle was boosted by a punt return TD and a short field leading to a 28-yard TD drive. Again, these things happen, but we can’t count on them every week. The total for this game is 47, which means the oddsmakers expect the Saints to be around 22 points. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if they can’t get over 20 or 21.
I say this a lot when picking road teams, but if you think a road team will win outright, and the spread is under a field goal, you’ve got to feel good about them covering too. — Mitch Goldich
Cleveland Browns (+7) at Baltimore Ravens
This is a classic buy-low spot to me. After everyone saw the Browns lose embarrassingly to the Rams 20-13 on Sunday night, the line in this AFC North clash has shot up to a touchdown. Look, Cleveland does have some very real issues: The offensive line is a mess, Freddie Kitchens has struggled as a first-year head coach and the secondary has been dealing with a few key injuries. But I do think the Ravens are a bit overrated in the market right now. They crushed the Dolphins, beat the lowly Cardinals by six and trailed the Chiefs 30-13 heading into the fourth quarter before losing 33-28. I think Baltimore’s secondary also has major questions, especially with cornerback Jimmy Smith missing time due to injury. Kyler Murray averaged 8.7 YPA in Week 2 and Patrick Mahomes averaged 10.1 YPA in Week 3, so this matchup seems like a potential get-right opportunity for Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham and Co. The Browns have way too much talent to perform this poorly consistently, and I’ll grab the seven here. — Max Meyer
Season record: 9-3